Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow,Russia |
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Authors: | Boris Revich Dmitri Shaposhnikov |
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Institution: | (1) Environmental Health Laboratory, Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia |
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Abstract: | After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated
how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified
vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality–temperature relationship indicated
that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C
resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular
diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature
from +18°C to −10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease
by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association
varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding
risks were consistently higher by 13–30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation
of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3–1.9%,
depending on other assumptions of the model. |
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Keywords: | Mortality Temperature Cold Heat Moscow |
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