树木花期预报的花芽形态测量法研究——以大山樱花期预报为例

 树木花期预报在林果、养蜂、园林和旅游业等方面有很大的实用价值。该文以大山樱（Prunus sargentii）为例，探讨通过花芽形态测量进行花期预报的新方法。通过1998～2000年对北京玉渊潭公园大山樱进行的数据采集和处理，建立了线性和指数两种预报模型。2002年的试报检验表明，采用3株的观测数据，并利用3日滑动平均的方法，对观测数据进行处理后所作的预报，误差在3 d以内的预报达80%以上；2003年连续测报的平均误差，模型1为1.6 d，模型2为2.1 d。这一树木花期预报的物候学新方法，简便易行、建模周期短、预报精度高，在春季芽膨大后，直至露瓣期之前，可以逐日连续发布预报。

THE USE OF FLOWER BUD MEASUREMENTS FOR FORECASTING FLORESCENCE IN PRUNUS SARGENTII

The ability to forecast the timing of florescence in trees is valuable for fruit trees, beekeeping, gardens and tourism. In this paper, measurements of bud morphometry (length and width) of Prunus sargentii were taken when its buds were beginning to expand at Yuyuantan Park in Beijing from 1998 to 2000. Our results showed that linear and exponential equations could adequately forecast the timing of bud florescence. A three-day running mean method measured on three trees was used in the forecast model. The forecast accuracy within 3 days in 2002 was more than 80% of florescence, and the forecast in 2003 was more precise, from 1.6 to 2.1 days.It was found that this new method is a convenient and precise method for forecasting florescence of plants having bigger buds in winter. A primary forecasting model could be developed by amending and perfecting this method by, for example, measuring several trees in a year. Additionally, the method can be applied to forecasting the first day of leaf out.