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大气CO2升高及气候变化对中国陆地生态系统结构与功能的制约和影响(英文)
引用本文:PAN Yu-De,J.M.MELILLO,D.W.KICKLIGHTER,肖向明,A.D.MCGUIRE.大气CO2升高及气候变化对中国陆地生态系统结构与功能的制约和影响(英文)[J].植物生态学报,2001,25(2):175-189.
作者姓名:PAN Yu-De  J.M.MELILLO  D.W.KICKLIGHTER  肖向明  A.D.MCGUIRE
作者单位:[1]USDAForestService,GlobalChangeProgram,NewtownSquare,PA,USACE, [2]TheEcosystemCenter,MarineBiologicalLabo
基金项目:The senior author acknowledges specially to the US Forest Service Northern Global Change program for the support that enables the author to finish the manuscr ipt relating to the previous work in the Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole.
摘    要:在本顶研究中,我们探讨了大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能的变化。与多数研究不同的是,我们耦合了两个以地理空间为参照的生态系统模型,即生物地理模型(KBIOME)和生物地球化学模型(TEM),用此研究现状和未来的环境下,中国的植被分布和年净初级生产力(NPP)的状况,我们采用3个大气环流模型,(GFDL-Q,GISS和OSU)预测的结果代表潜在气候变化。3个气候模型的预测都煌中国将变得更温暖并总体上更湿润。耦合的模型预测中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能都将产生十分显著的变化。植被的变迁表现为:1)中国东部森林带北移,温带常绿阔叶林面积扩大,较南的森林取代较北的类型;2)森林和草地的总面积增加,这是作为取代干旱藻木林、沙漠和高山苔原的结果。年净初级生产力在大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,增加30%左右,与其它研究不同的另一点是,我们可能进一步区分生产力变化的原因,在所增加的生产力中,12%-21%是源于生态系统的取代较低产的生态系统的结果。这项研究预测了未来中国植被和生产力潜在的变化并给出了变化的范围,为同类的研究以及有关的政策评估提供了有用的参考信息。

关 键 词:生态系统模型  生态系统结构与功能  气候变
修稿时间:2000年6月26日

MODELING STRUCTURAL AND FUNCTIONAL RESPONSES OF TERRESTRIA ECOSYSTEMS IN CHINA TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2
PAN Yu-De.MODELING STRUCTURAL AND FUNCTIONAL RESPONSES OF TERRESTRIA ECOSYSTEMS IN CHINA TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2001,25(2):175-189.
Authors:PAN Yu-De
Abstract:China, a country with large landmass and one-fifth of the globalhuman-populat ion, is an important location for scientific assessment of vulnerability to clim ate change. In this study, we explored both structural and functional responses of terrestrial ecosystems in China to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. We coupled two geographically referenced ecosystem models, a biogeography model , KBIOME, and a biogeochemistry model, TEM, to investigate vegetation distribut ion and annual NPP under contemporary and altered environmental conditions. We u sed three GCM projected climate scenarios (GFDL-Q,GISS and OSU) as fut ure conditions for the model simulations. The three GCM scenarios all suggest a warmer and generally wetter climate in China's future. The coupled models predic t significant responses of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function. The veg etation transition is shown as: 1) a northward shift of the forest zone in easte rn China, with an expansion in temperate broadleaf evergreen forests, and the re placement of northern forests by more southerly types; and 2) increases in the t otal forested areas and grasslands at the expense of arid shrublands, desert and tundra. The annual net primary production of all terrestrial ecosystems will in crease around 30% with the new climate equilibria and doubled atmospheric CO2 . We calculate that the increase in NPP is partially due to the positive fu ncti onal response of NPP (12%-21%) resulting from changed climate and doubled CO 2, and partially due to the positive structure response of NPP (11%-17%) assoc iate d with the vegetation transition from less productive ecosystems to more product ive ecosystems. This study presents the estimates of a range of vegetation chan ges and NPP responses and provides useful information that depicts potential changes in China's future.
Keywords:Ecosystem models  Ecosystem structure and function  Climate change  Biogeochemistry and biogeography
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