中国东北森林生长演替模拟模型及其在全球变化研究中的应用

 NEWCOP模型是一个新的适于模拟东北森林的种类组成动态的林窗类计算机模拟模型，它通过模拟在每一个林分斑块上的每株树木的更新、生长和死亡的全过程来反映森林群落的中长期生长和演替动态。由于 NEWCOP模型是一个由气候变量驱动的生态系统模型，故可用于评价气候变化对东北森林生长和演替的影响。在东北大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山地区对NEWCOP模型进行了验证和校准。沿环境梯度对NEWCOP模型的数字模拟实验表明：它能准确地再现顶极森林中树种组成及其在东北地区的垂直分布规律和水平分布规律；能准确地再现大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山的主要类型森林的生长和演替规律；在一定的场合NEWCOP还可反映林分的径级结构；NEWCOP模型还具有对现有森林的跟踪模拟能力。应用NEWCOP模型评估了东北森林生态系统对可能气候变化的敏感性。在GFDL 2×CO2和GISS 2×CO2气候变化情景下，东北森林的种类组成将发生很大变化，落叶阔叶树将取代目前长白山、小兴安岭的红松(Pinus koraiensis)和大兴安岭的兴安落叶松(Larix gmelinii)成为东北森林主要树种，而针叶树将在地带性森林中占很小的比重，阔叶树中蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica)将是最重要的树种，它将成为小兴安岭和大兴安岭最主要树种；东北地区适于森林生长的区域将大幅度减少，这些变化主要发生在气候变化过渡期。东北森林对不同的气候变化情景有不同响应。但是，总的趋势是未来东北森林中落叶阔叶树的比重将大幅度增加。这些结论对在全球气候变化背景下，我国东北合理地选择造林树种和制定现有森林的保护经营策略具有一定参考价值。

MODELING GROWTH AND SUCCESSION OF NORTHEASTERN CHINA FORESTS AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES

NEWCOP(Northeast Woods Competition Occupation Proccessor), a gap class model computer simulation model has been built to simulate the species composition dynamics of the northeast China forests, which simulates generation, growth and death of every tree on a forest stand. NEWCOP classifies the tree's regeneration into 3 types: seedling, sprouting and diffuse so that the ecological theories such as seed bank, seedling bank and effect of environmental factors on regeneration can be applied to regeneration modeling. NEWCOP can deal with the incomplete shading deciduous trees on evergreen trees reasonably to simulate annual regeneration and growth of evergreen trees before the deciduous leave return during earlier summer. NEWCOP finds a new type of mortality: death induced by small relative diameter growth, which can simulate the death of bigger or old trees. The simulation validation along the environmental gradient shows:NEWCOP model can reproduce correct distribution of forest types,correct tree species composition of climax forests,correct succession pattern of main forest types in northeastern China forests,and correct DBH distribution of forest stand at some cases.The application simulation under climate change scenarios shows:Different climate change scenarios have different effects on the forests;The deciduous tree species may increase in tree species composition in the future;There may be a great decrease of the area in which forest can grow in the future,and most decreases may occur within the first 100 years after simulation beginning.