Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming |
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Authors: | Cascade J B Sorte J Wilson White |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Environmental, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Massachusetts, 100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, MA 02125, USA;2.Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California at Davis, PO Box 247, Bodega Bay, CA 94923–0247, USA;3.Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina, 601 S. College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403, USA |
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Abstract: | Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species'' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. |
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Keywords: | climate change community competition ecological modelling forecasting impacts |
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