四川邛崃山脉雪豹与散放牦牛潜在分布重叠与捕食风险评估

由雪豹(Panthera uncia)捕食散放家畜引起的人兽冲突是目前中国雪豹保护面临的主要挑战之一。四川邛崃山脉地处雪豹分布范围的东南缘, 本研究以邛崃山中部的自然保护区群为研究区, 收集了2014-2018年红外相机调查和动物粪便DNA分析中采集到的雪豹与散放牦牛的分布位点, 使用MaxEnt物种分布模型预测两物种在研究区内的潜在分布范围, 以两物种分布重叠的程度作为评估雪豹捕食家畜潜在风险的指标, 从而识别雪豹-家畜冲突的高危区域。结果表明, 在邛崃山中部的保护区群中, 模型预测的雪豹适宜栖息地面积为871.14 km ², 牦牛适宜栖息地面积为988.41 km ², 二者重叠面积达534.47 km ², 主要分布在研究区西部的高山草甸地区, 占域内雪豹适宜栖息地总面积的61.35%。研究区域内总体上可能存在较高的雪豹-家畜冲突风险。在这些自然保护区以及新建的大熊猫国家公园的管理规划中, 应把高山放牧作为对区内野生雪豹种群的关键威胁之一, 重点关注模型预测的人兽冲突高危区域, 通过改变社区牧业管理方式、发展社区替代生计等方式, 降低潜在冲突的风险。

Evaluating the potential habitat overlap and predation risk between snow leopards and free-range yaks in the Qionglai Mountains,Sichuan

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) related to livestock predation is one of the main challenges for snow leopard conservation in China. The Qionglai Mountains are located on the southeastern edge of the snow leopard’s range, and we used the nature reserve network which transects the central Qionglai Mountains as our study area. We collected occurrence data for snow leopards and free-range yaks from camera-trapping surveys and animal fecal DNA analysis from 2014 to 2018 and then predicted the distribution of each species using species distribution models (MaxEnt). We mapped the overlapping patches of suitable habitats between snow leopards and yaks and used the extent of habitat overlapping as the indicator of potential predation risk. The results showed that, across the seven nature reserves, the predicted suitable habitat for snow leopards and yaks is 871.14 km ² and 988.41 km ², respectively. The overlapping habitat between the two species is 534.47 km ², primarily distributed in the alpine meadow area in the western part of the study area, accounting for 61.35% of snow leopard’s suitable habitat. We suggest that, when developing the management plans of these nature reserves and the newly established Giant Panda National Park, managers should consider alpine grazing a key threat to wild snow leopards and give high priority to the management of high-risk areas identified in this study. Immediate actions are needed to reduce the risk of potential HWC through interdisciplinary approaches such as grazing control and alternative livelihoods in local communities.