A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Northern Bobwhite Covey Detection Probabilities

Abstract: We compared the time-of-detection and logistic regression methods of estimating probability of detection for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) coveys. Both methods are unusual in that they allow estimation of the total probability of detection (i.e., the product of the probability that a covey is available for detection i.e., that a covey vocalizes] and detection given availability). The logistic regression method produced an average detection probability of 0.596 (SE = 0.020) and the time-of-detection method produced a detection probability estimate of 0.540 (SE = 0.086), and the 2 estimates were not significantly different. This is the first evaluation of the time-of-detection method with empirical field data. Although the time-of-detection and logistic regression method each have advantages, both can be used under appropriate conditions to improve estimates of bobwhite abundance by allowing for the estimation of detection probabilities. Improved estimates of bobwhite abundance will allow land managers to make more informed management decisions.