基于CLIMEX的2种核桃蚜虫潜在适生区分析

【目的】分析核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在全球范围内的潜在分布,比较气候变化对其分布的影响,为核桃有害生物综合管理策略的制定提供依据。【方法】基于实验室和野外试验,结合CLIMEX软件对核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在目前及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了模拟和系统评估。【结果】2种核桃蚜虫适生区十分相似,在世界范围内主要分布区集中在欧洲、北美洲、亚洲等区域,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围大于核桃全斑蚜,但在我国,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围小于核桃全斑蚜。气候变化将决定2种蚜虫分布的差异性,未来气候情景下,2种蚜虫适生区将发生变化,在欧洲、北美洲和亚洲适生区范围向高纬度延伸;在我国适生区范围逐渐减小。【结论】在世界范围内,核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜适生区域主要分布在25°N-75°N内的亚洲、欧洲、北美洲的部分地区;在我国,其适生区域主要分布在东部季风区内的东北的南部、西北东南部、西南中部、华中北部以及华北地区。

Analysis of potential suitable areas of two walnut aphids based on CLIMEX

Aim] The study analyzed the potential distribution of Chromaphis juglandicola and Panaphis juglandis worldwide, compared the impact of climate change on their distribution, and provided a basis for design integrated management strategies of walnut pests.Method] CLIMEX software was used to simulate and evaluate the potential global distribution of C. juglandicola and P. juglandis under current and future climatic conditions, by analyzing laboratory and field experimental data.Result] The results showed that the suitable areas were similar for both two walnut-feeding aphids. The main suitable distribution areas lie in Europe, North America and Asia for both species. The suitable area of C. juglandicola was larger than P. juglandis area around the world. However, in China, the suitable area of C. juglandicola is smaller than that of P. juglandis. The suitable area of two walnut aphids shift under the future climate change scenarios. The suitable areas in Europe, North America and Asia could expand eastward, while the suitable areas in China would gradually decrease.Conclusion] The suitable areas of C. juglandicola and P. juglandis are mainly concentrated in parts of Asia, Europe, and North America within 25°N to 75°N. While in China, the suitable areas are mainly distributed in the eastern monsoon region.