稻水象甲在新疆的潜在分布及适生性研究

【目的】通过精准开展稻水象甲在新疆荒漠绿洲稻区的适生性研究,旨在为新疆地区该重大外来有害生物的科学防控提供指导。【方法】基于19个环境因子和64个稻水象甲在新疆及内地重要代表性发生地的最新地理分布点信息,采用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS 10.2软件进行具体分析,预测稻水象甲在新疆的最新潜在分布区,并划分风险等级。【结果】稻水象甲在新疆荒漠绿洲稻区的适生区域主要集中在北疆天山北坡和伊犁河谷一带,以及南疆阿克苏地区和克州的部分区域,其非适生区占新疆总面积的79.97%,低适生区占7.34%,适生区占10.84%,高适生区则仅占1.85%。【结论】稻水象甲在新疆继续扩散的趋势与危害风险依然较大,其中,年平均温(bio1)、等温性(bio3)、最湿季平均温(bio8)、最暖季的降雨量(bio18)和最热月的高温(bio5)是影响稻水象甲在新疆潜在扩散的主要环境因子。

Potential distribution and adaptability of the rice water weevil (Lisorhoptrus oryzophilus) in Xinjiang

Aim] This research on the adaptability of Lisorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel in the desert oasis rice region of Xinjiang was conducted to provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of serious non-indigenous pests.Method] Based on the information of 19 environmental factors and 64 latest geographical distribution points of the rice water weevils in Xinjiang and other provinces, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.2 software were used to analyze and predict the potential distribution of rice water weevil in Xinjiang.Result] The suitable areas of the rice water weevil in the desert oasis rice region of Xinjiang mainly include the northern slopes of the northern Tianshan Mountains and the Ili River Valley, as well as parts of the Aksu and Kezhou regions in southern Xinjiang. The non-suitable area accounted for 79.97% of the province, 7.34% were of low-suitability, 10.84% was predicted suitable, while the highly csuitable area was only 1.85%.Conclusion]There is still a trend of continued spread and high risk of harm by the rice water weevil in Xinjiang. The main environmental factors affecting the potential spread are the annual average temperature (bio1), isothermality (bio3), average temperature during the wettest season (bio8), rainfall during the warmest season (bio18), and temperature maxima during the hottest months (bio5).