影响河北省外来物种入侵的社会经济因素分析

【目的】探讨影响河北省外来物种入侵的社会经济因素,以期能够为河北省外来物种的防控提供可行性建议对策。【方法】通过查阅期刊、专著和数据库等分析了河北省外来入侵物种情况,对2003、2007、2011、2015、2019年5个时间节点的进口贸易、旅游人数、境内公路公里数3个社会经济变量与外来入侵物种量进行相关性分析,明确影响河北省外来入侵生物的社会经济因素,进而通过建立时间序列模型预测出未来几年进口贸易额的变化情况,利用曲线估计预测2023年的外来入侵物种数量。【结果】河北省外来入侵物种数呈现逐年增长的趋势,且在各年的外来入侵物种中均有超过85%是与人类活动有关;进口贸易总额、入境旅游总人数和境内公路公里数与外来入侵物种数之间都表现出显著的正相关关系;预测显示,到2023年河北省的外来入侵物种数将达到367种。【结论】社会经济的发展将会带来更多的外来入侵物种,基于河北省外来入侵生物的入侵途径提出了防控外来物种入侵的对策。

Analysis of socio-economic factors that affected the invasion of alien species in Hebei Province

Aim] The socio-economic factors that affect the invasion of alien species in Hebei Province were explored to provide feasible countermeasures and suggestions for the prevention and control of alien species.Method] The distribution of invasive alien species in Hebei Province was analyzed by reviewing scientific journals, monographs, and databases. To illustrate the socio-economic factors affecting the invasion of alien species in Hebei Province, correlation analysis between the number of invasive alien species and the import trade, number of tourists, and total length of highways within the province in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 was performed. The change in the value of import trade in the next few years was predicted by establishing a time series model. The number of invasive alien species was predicted by 2023 using a curve estimation.Result] The number of invasive alien species in Hebei Province increased yearly, and more than 85% of invasive alien species in each year were introduced by intentional or unintentional human activities. There was a significant positive correlation between the total value of import trade, total number of inbound tourists, and length of the road network and the number of invasive alien species. The number of invasive alien species in Hebei Province was estimated to reach 367 by 2023.Conclusion] This study shows that social and economic developments will lead to more invasion of alien species in Hebei Province. Based on the pathways of invasive alien species, countermeasures to prevent and control the invasion of alien species are proposed.