基于@RISK番茄潜叶蛾对我国番茄产业造成的经济损失评估

目的]新发恶性外来入侵物种番茄潜叶蛾的入侵对我国番茄产业的安全生产造成了极大威胁。本文利用@RISK模型对化学防治、生物防治和理化诱控3种不同防治场景下我国番茄产业的潜在经济损失和投入防治后可挽回的经济损失进行综合评估，结果可为我国番茄潜叶蛾综合防治体系的构建提供参考。方法]基于国内外文献收集到的番茄潜叶蛾危害数据（危害率、番茄产量损失率、防治成本和防治效果），结合全国农产品商务信息公共服务平台、FAO获得我国番茄的种植面积、产量及价格等相关数据，利用@RISK模型对不防治场景和3种不同防治场景下的番茄产业的经济损失进行评估。结果]番茄潜叶蛾在不防治场景下每年给我国番茄产业造成的经济损失总量在（8226165.67~41903398.26）万元，在化学防治（使用合成杀虫剂）、生物防治（释放天敌昆虫和微生物制剂）和理化诱控（基于灯光和合成性信息素的诱杀产品）3种不同防治场景下能有效挽回经济损失，分别为89.83%、87.90%和89.19%。结论]基于不同的防治场景能够有效挽回番茄潜叶蛾造成的经济损失，面对该害虫在我国的严峻扩散形势，建议各级政府和行业部门应高度重视并进一步加强番茄潜叶蛾的防控，保障我国番茄产业的安全生产。

Assessment of the economic loss to the tomato industry caused by Tuta absoluta in China based on @RISK

Aim] The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera:Gelechiidae), is an invasive insect pest that threatens the tomato industry in China. We used the@RISK model to predict the potential economic losses under various management strategies, including chemical control (CC), biological control (BC), and sensory cue-based physical and chemical control (SCPC). These results are expected to guide preventative measures and management options for T. absoluta in China.Method] We collected the data on damage rate, yield loss rate, control cost and the effectiveness of the control on T. absoluta from the Chinese and international literature, as well as on the cultivated acreage, production costs and market price. Based on this information, we used the@RISK model to predict and evaluate the economic losses to the tomato industry in China under non-prevention and control scenarios, as well as three different prevention and control scenarios.Result] Under the non-prevention and control scenario, the potential economic losses ranged between 82261656.7 and 419033982.6 thousand yuan per year nationally. However, the economic losses were effectively reduced by 89.83% when using CC (synthesized insecticides), by 87.90% using BC (arthropod natural enemies release and use of microbial agents), and by 89.19% using SCPC (light traps and synthesized sex pheromone-based products).Conclusion] As these various management scenarios are successful in reducing the economic losses caused by T. absoluta and considering the rapid dispersal and expansion of this species in China, we suggest that the government and relevant stakeholders be aware of the importance of the management of this pest. The promotion of prevention and management programs against this pest is urgently needed, as they are expected to protect the tomato industry in China.