入侵性杂草皱匕果芥在中国的适生区预测及分析

目的]对入侵性杂草皱匕果芥在我国的适生区进行预测，为入侵风险评估和损失预测提供数据支撑，同时为控制预案制定提供科学依据。方法]先用ENMTools和SPSS分别对分布数据和环境变量进行筛选，再调用R程序包Kuenm校准MaxEnt模型确定最优参数设置，然后使用MaxEnt和ArcMap对皱匕果芥在中国的适生区进行预测，并将已公布的进境粮食指定监管场地、进口粮食加工企业地理位置与皱匕果芥在中国的适生区进行匹配分析。结果]最冷月份最低温度、温度季节变化标准差和最冷季度降水量是对MaxEnt模型拟合重要性排名前3位的环境变量，最冷月份最低温度可能是影响皱匕果芥发生分布的最重要的自然因素；皱匕果芥在中国的中度适生区占中国陆地总面积的15.13%，主要集中在秦岭-淮河以南、龙门山-大凉山以东的亚热带季风气候区域；高度适生区占中国陆地总面积的1.67%，主要形成川渝、湖北-湖南和长三角3个中心。在皱匕果芥的中、高度适生区分布有901个进口粮食加工企业和57个进境粮食指定监管场地。结论]皱匕果芥的中、高度适生区内存在我国粮棉等作物的重要产区，一旦该杂草大面积发生，将给我国粮棉等作物种植造成非常不利的影响。进口粮食的国际贸易是皱匕果芥入侵中国的主要途径，应当加强对进口粮食接卸、运输、加工等高风险区域和环节的监管力度，并积极实施外来入侵杂草的监测和调查，确保做到早发现、早防除，防止进一步扩散和危害。

Prediction and analysis of potential geographical distribution of an invasive weed Rapistrum rugosum in China

Aim] To provide data support for invasion risk assessment and loss prediction, as well as the scientific basis for the development of control plans, by predicting the potential geographical distribution of the invasive weed, Rapistrum rugosum.Method] ENMTools and SPSS were used first to remove duplicate occurrences in the same environmental variable grid cell and eliminate one variable per pair with high correlations, respectively; and next Kuenm R package was called to models calibrate, in addition to select the optimal parameter settings of MaxEnt; then we ran MaxEnt and ArcMap to predict the potential geographical distribution of R. rugosum in China; at last, the positions of ports and processing enterprises designated by China''s customs for imported grain were matched with the potential geographical distribution of R. rugosum in China and analyzed.Result] The Min temperature of coldest month, temperature seasonality and precipitation of coldest quarter are the top three environmental variables for the fitting importance of MaxEnt model, while the first one might be the most important natural factor affecting the occurrence and distribution of R. rugosum. The moderately suitable area of R. rugosum in China accounts for 15.13% of the total land area of China, and is mainly concentrated in the subtropical monsoon climate regions, which in the south of Qinling-Huaihe line and east of Longmenshan-Daliangshan. The highly suitable area accounts for 1.67% of China''s total land area, mainly forming three centers in Sichuan-Chongqing, Hubei-Hunan and Yangtze River Delta. There are 901 processing enterprises and 57 ports designated by China''s customs for imported grain in the moderately and highly suitable areas of R. rugosum.Conclusion] The moderately and highly suitable areas of R. rugosum overlap with the vital production areas of grain and cotton crops in China, and once this weed occurs in a large area, it will have a great adverse effect on the cultivation of grain and cotton crops in China. The international trade of imported grain is the main way of the invasion of R. rugosum into China, hence it is essential to strengthen the supervision of imported grain receiving and unloading, transportation, processing, and other high-risk areas and links. Meanwhile, the monitoring and investigation of invasive foreign weeds must be actively implemented to ensure early detection and prevent further spread and harm.