Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a Mexican dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. United Graduate School of Agriculture Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu 183-8509, Japan;3. Field Science Center, Kitasato University, Aomori, Japan;1. National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan;2. Kyushu Okinawa Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Anno 1742-1, Nishinoomote, Kagoshima 891-3102, Japan;3. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan;1. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada;2. Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6, Canada;3. Harrow Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Harrow, Ontario N0R 1G0, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in tropical forest ecosystems is important to inform monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), and to effectively assess forest management options under climate change. Two process-based models, Forest-DNDC and Biome-BGC, with different spatial modeling scales were evaluated to estimate the potential effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a tropical dry semi-deciduous forest in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The results from the simulations using the two models show that carbon sequestration in this dry forest is highly sensitive to warming. Carbon uptake in this forest may increase or decrease slightly with a corresponding increase or decrease in precipitation; however, with an increase in temperature, carbon uptake may decrease significantly, showing that warming may be the main climate factor that impacts carbon storage in this tropical dry forest. Model performance evaluation indicates that both models may be used to estimate C stocks, but DNDC may be better than BGC for assessing the effect of climate change on C dynamics. |
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| Keywords: | Secondary forest Karstic landscape Biomass Soil carbon pool Forest-DNDC Biome-BGC |
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