基于最大虫口限量原理的外来入侵害虫定量风险评估技术

为了保证检疫的安全性而又不失国际贸易的透明度，需要对检疫害虫进行定量的风险评估。本文介绍一套基于最高虫口限量概念的害虫传入定量风险评估计算机平台，把两性生殖害虫的入侵风险建立在至少一对潜在交配成虫的传入概率上。计算机分析平台由SAS V9.0分析软件，PHP网络编程语言和MySQL数据库构建，通过Apache服务器进行网络发布。用户通过web登陆该平台并输入相关参数，可自动调用服务器端的SAS分析程序进行分析并在网页上得到结果。这是害虫传入风险定量评估的新尝试，它将为检疫部门提供一套实用性较强的害虫传入风险量化评估的新工具。

Quantitative risk analysis of invasive alien pests based on the maximum pest limit concept

A quantitative risk assessment is needed for each quarantine insect pest to ensure quarantine security without sacrificing the transparency of international trade. In this paper, a quantitative risk analysis system based on the maximum pest limit concept (MPL) was designed to determine the risk probability of alien insect pests introduced into China. The equations of MPL were constructed to determine the probability of a single pair of bisexual insects surviving in a shipment of commodity which were to be introduced into China. A computer system integrating with SAS V9.0 was developed by PHP program language and MySQL database to assess the risk and released on web through Apache server. The clients just have to submit the form lists including required data after logging into the system, and the computer system will activate the analysis process automatically and show the precise outcome on web. This research is a new attempt in the quantitative risk analysis of alien insect pests, and provides a new analysis tool for the quarantine sector of the government.