全球变化格局下重要传粉昆虫大蜜蜂的潜在适生区变化

【目的】当前全球气候变化、土地利用改变、人类活动加剧等正威胁着传粉昆虫的多样性及分布；蜜蜂是生态系统中重要的传粉昆虫类群，对气候、环境变化响应敏感。本研究以重要的传粉昆虫大蜜蜂Apis dorsata为对象，探讨全球变化格局下其潜在适生区变化以及影响其分布的关键因子。【方法】通过文献、馆藏和野外调查系统收集了全球范围内大蜜蜂的物种分布数据，使用13个环境变量通过MaxEnt模型模拟了大蜜蜂当前的潜在适生区；使用9个气候变量并结合公共地球系统模型(CCSM4)模拟了大蜜蜂过去、当前和未来的潜在适生区。【结果】AUC比率显示MaxEnt模型对大蜜蜂的潜在适生区模拟具有较高的准确性，模拟结果表明大蜜蜂的中高潜在适生区主要分布在南亚和东南亚湿润的热带雨林、热带季节性雨林和低地雨林。人类影响、温度季节性变化、等温性、最冷季均温和海拔是影响大蜜蜂潜在适生区的5个最主要因子；在人类影响下大蜜蜂的潜在适生区向山区和连片的湿润常绿森林区收缩，中高潜在适生区显著减少且呈破碎化趋势。基于9个气候变量和CCSM4气候模型对过去、当前和未来的模拟结果显示：在过去的末次冰盛期，东南亚地区可能是大蜜蜂的避难所；在未来，广布于热带地区的大蜜蜂适生区与当前的相近，且部分地区适生指数升高。【结论】基于气候的模拟结果显示大蜜蜂能积极应对未来气候变暖，但随人类活动的加剧及全球气候变化，大蜜蜂仍然面临较大的威胁，需要加强其在南亚和东南亚的中高潜在适生区的重视和保护。

Changes of the potential suitable distribution areas of Apis dorsata (Hymenoptera: Apidae), an important pollinator,under the global change pattern

【Aim】 Global climate change, land-use change, and intensifying human activities are threatening the biodiversity and distribution of wild pollinating insects. Bees are the important pollinator group in the ecosystem, and they are sensitive to climate and environmental changes. In this study, using Apis dorsata, an important pollinator, as a target, we explored the changes of its potential suitable distribution areas under the global change pattern, and analyzed the key factors that influence its distribution. 【Methods】 The distribution data of A. dorsata worldwide were collected through literatures, specimens and field survey, and 13 environmental variables were used to model the potential suitable distribution areas of A. dorsata in the present by MaxEnt. The potential suitable distribution areas of A. dorsata in the past, present and future were also modeled by using nine climate variables and Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). 【Results】 The AUC ratio shows that MaxEnt model had high accuracy in modeling the potential distribution areas of A. dorsata. The model results show that the medium and high suitable distribution areas of A. dorsata are mainly in the moist tropical rainforests, tropical seasonal forests and lowland forests in South and Southeast Asia. Human influence, temperature seasonality, isothermality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and elevation are the most important top five factors that influence the potential suitable distribution areas of A. dorsata. The distribution areas of A. dorsata are shrinking to mountains and continuous evergreen forests under human disturbance, and the medium and high suitable distribution areas of A. dorsata are significantly reduced and show the fragmented trend. The past, present and future results of global climate models based on nine climate variables and global climate models CCSM4 show that Southeast Asia region could be the refuge of A. dorsata in the Last Glacial Maximum. And in the future, the potential distribution areas of the widespread species A. dorsata in tropical regions will be close to those in the present, and the fitness index will rise in some areas. 【Conclusion】 Although the model results based on climate variables show that A. dorsata can actively adapt to future climate change, A. dorsata is still under threat from increasing human activities and global climate change. So great importance should be attached to the medium and high suitable distribution areas in South and Southeast Asia in order to protect A. dorsata.