棉铃虫发生与北太平洋海温的遥相关 及其长期灾变预警

本文分析了山东郓城26年（1974～1999）、德州22年（1978～1999）和江苏丰县20年（1980～1999）棉铃虫百株累计卵量与北太平洋海温的遥相关关系及其时空动态规律，并选出相关显著程度P<0.05概率水平、空间分布范围较大、持续时间较长而稳定的组合作为关键预测因子组建了郓城、德州棉铃虫三代卵，丰县棉铃虫二代卵的预测模型，并筛选出最优长期灾变预警模型。结果表明：① 北太平洋海温场与棉铃虫种群数量消长存在显著或极显著的遥相关区域，其位置及范围随时间变化，但存在若干呈现出空间稳定性和时间持续性的大面积相关显著区域。② 郓城棉铃虫三代卵量和丰县棉铃虫二代卵量与北太平洋海温场的相关区分布形式很相似，与前两年1月份北太平洋月平均海温场存在大片相关显著的区域（35°～ 55°N，135°E～135°W），持续时间达4个月之久；而德州棉铃虫三代卵量与前两年7～9月份北太平洋低纬度海温有大范围相关显著区（1°～17°N，165°E～120°W）。 ③ 用前两年1～11月份北太平洋海温场相关显著区内各格点的月平均海温距平的平均值做因子建立了棉铃虫长期灾变预警模型，预测检验结果表明：郓城棉铃虫三代卵6年（1994～1999）中报准5年，丰县棉铃虫二代卵5年（1995～1999）中报准3年，德州棉铃虫三代卵5年（1995～1999）全部符合。据此可提前20～27个月做棉铃虫的长期灾变预警。

Teleconnection between sea surface temperature in North Pacific and outbreaks of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) in Northern and Eastern China: an approach for long-term forecast

he teleconnection between population density (egg counts) of cotton bollworm (CBW), Helicoverpa armigera （Hübner）, and the anomaly of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific was analyzed to find the significant (P<0.05) correlative key factors with large and sustainable spatio temporal extension to build long term forecast models for Helicoverpa outbreaks. Based on the CBW data over 26 years (1974-1999) in Yuncheng, Shangdong Province, over 22 years (1978-1999) in Dezhou, Shandong Province, and over 20 years(1980-1999) in Fengxian, Jiangsu Province, optimum forecast models were established for long term prediction of the 3rd generation eggs in Yuncheng and Dezhou, and the 2nd generation eggs in Fengxian. The results indicated:（1）There was significant (P<0.05) or highly significant (P<0.01) teleconnection between the fluctuation of CBW populations and SST in the North Pacific. The location and range of the significant correlated areas varied with time, but there were a few such significantly correlated areas, relatively stable in space and sustainable in time. （2）There was a vast region in the North Pacific of significantly correlated (P<0.001 in center) with the CBW eggs counts of the 3rd generation in Yuncheng, the 2nd generation in Fengxian and the SST in January 2 years ago, which ranged from 35°N to 55°N, 135°E to 135°W and sustained for 4 months. But the area for the 3rd generation eggs in Dezhou was located at the low latitude Northern Pacific (1°-17°N，165°E-120°W) during July to September 2 years ago.（3）The evaluation of models with the drive variable of the average of the mean SST departures on each grid within the significant correlative areas from January to November of the year before last showed that the predictive accordant rates for the egg counts of the 3rd generation CBW in Yuncheng and Dezhou, and the 2nd generation in Fengxian were correct in 5 of the 6 verified years (1994-1999) for Yuncheng, correct in all 5 years (1995-1999) for Dezhou and in 3 of 5 years (1995-1999) for Fengxian respectively. The results suggested the possibility to make forecast of CBW outbreaks about 20-27 months earlier with these models.