| 山东阳谷县黑线仓鼠种群数量预测预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜运良,张学栋.山东阳谷县黑线仓鼠种群数量预测预报[J].兽类学报,1994,14(3):195-202. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜运良 张学栋 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学生物系，山东省阳谷县植保站 |
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| 摘 要： | 作者于１９８２－１９９２年对山东省阳谷县黑线仓鼠的种群数量作了调查，并应用逐步回归分析法预报了阳谷，薛城１９９３年３月份，５月份、８月份和１１月份黑线仓鼠的鼠害发生程度，预报值与实测值基本相符。
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| 关 键 词： | 黑线仓鼠 种群 预测预报 |
STUDIES ON FORECASTING THE POPULATION SIZES OF CRICETULUS BARABENSIS IN YANGGU COUNTY,SHANDONG PROVINCE |
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| JIANG Yunliang LU Haoquan LI Yuchun WANG Yushan.STUDIES ON FORECASTING THE POPULATION SIZES OF CRICETULUS BARABENSIS IN YANGGU COUNTY,SHANDONG PROVINCE[J].Acta Theriologica Sinica,1994,14(3):195-202. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yunliang LU Haoquan LI Yuchun WANG Yushan |
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| Abstract: | Tbe population sizes of striped hamster(Cricetulus barabensis)in the arid area ofYanggu county,Shandong Province were forecasted by means of stepwise regressionanalysis. Six linear regression equations were obtained:where S_i,Th_i,a_i,,Pr.i,L_i and P_i represent sexual ratio,extremely high temperature,age distribution,density, precipitation,litter size and pregnancy rate of a certain(i)month or season(s for summer and w for winter)respectively.we predicted the popLilation sizes of striped hamster in March,May,August andNovember by the above equations. The restults showed that the predicted value accordedwith the observed one in the main. |
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| Keywords: | Striped hamster(Cricetulus barabensis) Population Forecasting Step-wise regression analysis |
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