Valid historical data for probabilistic risk analysis in natural disasters |
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| Authors: | Jun Guo Sijian Zhao |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs &3. Ministry of Education, the Peoples' Republic of China, Beijing, China;4. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (Beijing Normal University), Beijing, China;5. Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | With the changes in the nature and the society, risks will inevitably change. It implies that, with the passage of time, some historical data would be invalid for probabilistic risk analysis. In this paper, a model to acquire the valid data is suggested, which is based on the Mann- Kendall test to detect abrupt change-point on time series data. What's more, the typhoon risk analysis in Guangdong Province, China is used as a case study to show how to apply the model. The valid data of the intensities of typhoons and the related losses in the province for the probabilistic risk analysis is obtained from the data during the time from 1984 to 2012. Comparing with the results based on the set of invalid data and the set of all collected data, the assessed risk based on the valid data is more reliable, which could reflect the dynamics of the typhoon risk. |
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic risk natural disaster time series change-point problem Mann- Kendall test valid data abrupt change test typhoon |
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