A stochastic model of a temperature-dependent population

The theoretical basis is developed for a population model which allows the use of constant temperature experimental data in predicting the size of an insect population for any variable temperature environment. The model is based on a stochastic analysis of an insect's mortality, development, and reproduction response to temperature. The key concept in the model is the utilization of a physiological time scale. Different temperatures affect the population by increasing an individual's physiological age by differing rates. Conditions for the temperature response properties are given which establish the validity of the model for variable temperature regimes. These conditions refer to the relationship between chronological and physiological age. Reasonable agreement between the model and field populations demonstrates the practicality of this approach.