Bayesian estimation of group sizes for a coastal cetacean using aerial survey data

Many small cetacean, sirenian, and pinniped species aggregate in groups of large or variable size. Accurate estimation of group sizes is essential for estimating the abundance and distribution of these species, but is challenging as individuals are highly mobile and only partially visible. We developed a Bayesian approach for estimating group sizes using wide‐angle aerial photographic or video imagery. Our approach accounts for both availability and perception bias, including a new method (analogous to distance sampling) for estimating perception bias due to small image size in wide‐angle images. We demonstrate our approach through an application to aerial survey data for an endangered population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in Cook Inlet, Alaska. Our results strengthen understanding of variation in group size estimates and allow for probabilistic statements about the size of detected groups. Aerial surveys are a standard tool for estimating the abundance and distribution of various marine mammal species. The role of aerial photographic and video data in wildlife assessment is expected to increase substantially with the widespread uptake of unmanned aerial vehicle technology. Key aspects of our approach are relevant to group size estimation for a broad range of marine mammal, seabird, other waterfowl, and terrestrial ungulate species.