Climate change may plunder the facultative top predator Yellow-throated Martin from the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

The mountain ecosystems are fragile because of topography and extreme climatic conditions. The Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a biodiversity-rich ecosystem and highly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic activities among the mountains. In HKH, the climate change impacts on ecologically specialist species are already evident, but generalist species are not much studied. One such generalist species distributed throughout the HKH is Yellow-Throated Marten (YTM) (Martes flavigula Boddaert, 1785), a facultative predator that occupies the Southern flank of the HKH. The YTM is one of the least studied animals distributed up to 4510-m elevation. The HKH covers 61 terrestrial ecoregions and 304 Protected Areas (PAs). An ecologically successful facultative predator of the region is seriously threatened because of habitat loss and climate change. Hence, we used an ensemble model to map the distribution of suitable habitats and their representativeness in terms of ecoregions and PA coverage. The results indicated that by 2050, the distribution range might decline to 58.78% and 49.33% with reference to the current scenario under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The species may lose much of its range, mainly in the eastern part of the HKH landscape. Furthermore, the centroid of the distribution may also shift to the northwest, thereby abandoning many areas and occupying new refugia. The Upper Gangetic plains moist deciduous forests ecoregion possess the highest suitable habitats for the YTM, with a mean value of 0.744. At the same time, the existing PA network represents only 12.2% of its suitable habitat in HKH. Hence, for the long-term viability of the species, there is a need to enhance protection and improve habitat quality.