东北三省“水-能源-碳”系统仿真模拟——基于系统动力学模型

水资源和能源消费量及碳排放制约区域发展水平,也影响区域生态环境质量,区域多要素资源耦合作用与协同管理成为近年来的研究热点。水资源、能源和碳排放三个系统通过不同的流程相互连接,探究"水-能源-碳"系统耦合关系,是区域探索绿色协调发展的重要基础。以东北三省为研究对象,采用系统动力学研究方法,从自然、社会、经济三个维度来探索水-能源-碳三者的关联模式。以2001-2019年东北三省的水资源、能源、碳排放现状为基础数据,梳理三个子系统的耦合关系,并对未来二十年其发展变化仿真模拟。结果表明：（1）水资源、能源、碳排放在未来二十年均呈现增长的趋势,水资源增长趋势最快,在仿真情景5下,与2020年相比2040年水资源、能源消费量和碳排放量分别增长230.4%、210.7%和36.9%;（2）决策变量对"水-能源-碳"系统的影响程度依次是清洁节能>产业调控>国内生产总值（GDP）增长率,随着GDP增长率升高,水资源和能源消耗量、碳排放量升增加,随着产业转型升级,居民意识提高及清洁能源增加,水资源和能源消耗量、碳排放量减少。在综合调控情景下,未来水资源消耗量高于基础情景,能源消耗量和碳排放量则得到了良好的控制;（3）2020-2040年,水资源、能源消费量和碳排放量呈现强相关性,纽带关系呈协同优化方向改善,供需缺口减小,有效的缓解了环境压力;（4）情景3的能源结构调整和居民意识的提高可有效降低碳排放量,情景4产业结构的调整对水资源和能源的影响较为明显。情景5权衡经济发展与节能节水以减少碳排放,严格按照"双碳"目标,将水资源、能源向较高质量发展的可持续发展方向推进,更具参考性。研究结果有利于东北三省"水-能源-碳"系统可持续发展,促进经济发展水平。

Simulation of water-energy-carbon in Northeast China based on system dynamics model

Water resources and energy consumption and carbon emissions restrict regional development and affect regional ecological and environmental quality, the coupling effect and collaborative management of regional multi-factor resources have become a research hotspot in recent years. Water resources, energy, and carbon emission systems are interconnected through different processes. Exploring the coupling relationship of water-energy-carbon system is an important basis for regional exploration of green and the coordinated development. This paper takes three northeastern provinces as the research objects, adopts the system dynamics research method to explore the water-energy-carbon correlation model from the natural, social and economic dimensions. Based on the current situation of water resources, energy, and carbon emissions in the three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2019, the coupling relationship of the three subsystems is sorted out, and the development and change of the next two decades is simulated. The results show that:(1) water resources, energy, and carbon emissions will show an increasing trend in the next twenty years, and water resources will show the fastest growing trend. Under scenario 5, compared with 2020, water resources, energy and carbon emissions will increase by 230.4%, 210.7% and 36.9% in 2040, respectively. (2) The degree of influence of decision variables on the water-energy-carbon system is in the order of clean energy conservation > industrial regulation > GDP growth rate. GDP growth rate is positively correlated with system change, while the industrial structure and residents'' consciousness are negatively correlated with the system. In the comprehensive regulation scenario, the future water consumption is higher than the base scenario, while the energy consumption and carbon emissions are well controlled. (3) From 2020 to 2040, there is a strong correlation between water resources, energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the link is improved in the direction of collaborative optimization. The gap between supply and demand is reduced, which effectively alleviates environmental pressure. (4) In scenario 3, the adjustment of energy structure and the improvement of residents'' awareness can effectively reduce carbon emissions. In scenario 4, the adjustment of industrial structure has a significant impact on water resources and energy. the scenario 5 balances economic development with energy saving and water saving to reduce carbon emissions, strictly follows the "dual carbon" goal, and promotes the sustainable development direction of higher quality development of water resources and energy, which is more reference. It is conducive to the sustainable development of the water-energy-carbon system in the three northeastern provinces and promotes the level of economic development.