Inferences about human demography based on multilocus analyses of noncoding sequences

Data from 10 unlinked autosomal noncoding regions, resequenced in 15 individuals from each of three populations, were used in a multilocus analysis to test models of human demography. Each of the 10 regions consisted of approximately 2500 bp. The multilocus analysis, based on summary statistics (average and variance of Tajima's D and Fu and Li's D*), was used to test a family of models with recent population expansion. The African sample (Hausa of Cameroon) is compatible with a constant population size model and a range of models with recent expansion. For this population sample, we estimated confidence sets that showed the limited range of parameter values compatible with growth. For an exponential growth rate as low as 1 x 10(-3)/generation, population growth is unlikely to have started prior to 50,000 years ago. For higher growth rates, the onset of growth must be more recent. On the basis of the average value of Tajima's D, our sample from an Italian population was found to be incompatible with a constant population size model or any simple expansion model. In the Chinese sample, the variance of Tajima's D was too large to be compatible with the constant population size model or any simple expansion model.