Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta‐analysis |
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Authors: | Quansheng Ge Huanjiong Wang This Rutishauser Junhu Dai |
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Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;3. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960–2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade?1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade?1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade?1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade?1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s–2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s–2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R = ?0.33, P < 0.05). |
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Keywords: | China climate change meta‐analysis phenology season trend |
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