Risk avoidance and nesting strategies

Gillespie (1974,1975) has shown that selection will tend to minimize variance in offspring number. It is shown that this effect is due to selection maximizing the average number of surviving offspring when there is density-dependent survival, and that it is unnecessary to invoke principles such as minimizing the variability of fitness (Real, 1980). The effect of this principle of selecting for laying several small clutches rather than one large clutch when there is predation on whole clutches is investigated. It is found that the selection pressure is weak, contrary to the conclusion of Rubenstein (1982), and is unlikely to be of evolutionary importance.