Lower‐than‐expected CH4 emissions from rice paddies with rising CO2 concentrations

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂) generally increases carbon input in rice paddy soils and stimulates the growth of methane‐producing microorganisms. Therefore, eCO₂ is widely expected to increase methane (CH₄) emissions from rice agriculture, a major source of anthropogenic CH₄. Agricultural practices strongly affect CH₄ emissions from rice paddies as well, but whether these practices modulate effects of eCO₂ is unclear. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments and meta‐analyses, that whereas eCO₂ strongly increased CH₄ emissions from paddies without straw incorporation, it tended to reduce CH₄ emissions from paddy soils with straw incorporation. Our experiments also identified the microbial processes underlying these results: eCO₂ increased methane‐consuming microorganisms more strongly in soils with straw incorporation than in soils without straw, with the opposite pattern for methane‐producing microorganisms. Accounting for the interaction between CO₂ and straw management, we estimate that eCO₂ increases global CH₄ emissions from rice paddies by 3.7%, an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Our results suggest that the effect of eCO₂ on CH₄ emissions from rice paddies is smaller than previously thought and underline the need for judicious agricultural management to curb future CH₄ emissions.