中国航空碳排放及其效率时空演化特征分析

航空碳排放不仅影响空气质量且可造成温室效应。中国正处于从民航大国向民航强国迈进的关键时期,提高航空碳排放效率是行之有效的航空碳减排手段。运用可拓展随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)对中国2004—2019年航空碳排放总量的时空演变特征进行分析,以探明不同尺度区域航空碳排放的空间差异与空间关联表现;运用基于非期望产出的超效率松弛变量模型(SBM)和标准差椭圆分析法(SDE)对中国航空碳排放效率的时空分布与格局演化过程进行判定,以分析各省域航空碳排放效率的差异,并给出有效的航空碳减排方略。研究发现：2004—2019年,中国航空碳排放总量持续增长,航空碳排放增长率和航空碳排放强度均呈波动下降趋势;四大经济区航空碳排放总量分布总体表现为“东部>西部>中部>东北”的格局,东部仍是中国航空碳排放的主要区域;高碳排放区较分散,还未形成省域之间连片的碳排放高值区。2004—2019年,中国航空碳排放效率总体呈现“M”型波动上升趋势,各省域航空碳排放效率均不同程度的提高,但主要以低效率区、中效率区为主;各省域之间的航空碳排放效率差异性经历了逐渐减小到逐步增大的过程,但总体航空碳...

Spatio-temporal evolution of carbon emission and its efficiency in Chinese aviation

Aviation carbon emissions not only affect air quality but also cause greenhouse effect. China is in the critical period of transforming from a big country to a strong country in civil aviation. Improving the efficiency of aviation carbon emission is an effective means of aviation carbon emission reduction. This paper uses the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model (STIRPAT) to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of total aviation carbon emissions in China from 2004 to 2019, to explore the spatial differences and correlation of aviation carbon emissions at different scales; The ultra-efficiency Slack Based Measure model (SBM) based on non-expected output and Standard Deviation Ellipse analysis (SDE) were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and pattern evolution process of the aviation carbon emission efficiency in China, to calculate their differences in various provinces, and give effective aviation carbon reduction strategy. The research found that China''s total aviation carbon emissions continued to grow from 2004 to 2019. Both of the growth rate and the intensity of aviation carbon emission showed a decreasing trend. The overall distribution of aviation carbon emissions in the four economic zones shows a pattern of "eastern China is the largest, northern China is the smallest, and western China is larger than central China". The eastern area is still the main region of aviation carbon emissions in China. The high-value regions of aviation carbon emissions are relatively scattered, and no continuous high-value regions have been formed among provinces. From 2004 to 2019, China''s aviation carbon emission efficiency generally showed a "M" shaped fluctuation upward trend. Aviation carbon emission efficiency of different provinces has been improved to various levels, but mainly in low efficiency areas and middle efficiency areas. The difference of aviation carbon emission efficiency among provinces and regions has experienced a process of gradually decreasing to gradually increasing. However, the spatial distribution pattern of aviation carbon emission efficiency is dominated by south to north direction. From the national, regional, and provincial scale to study the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of aviation carbon emission and its efficiency, we can identify the regional aviation carbon emissions characteristics, and effectively explore the differential development strategies of regional aviation carbon emission reduction. The improvement of aviation carbon emission efficiency has theoretical guiding significance for improving the sustainable development of China''s civil aviation industry, promoting the green, low-carbon and efficient development of civil aviation economy, and promoting the differentiated emission reduction process of various regions.