Mortality rates of desert vegetation during high-intensity drought at Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park,Central Australia

Precipitation variability and heatwaves are expected to intensify over much of inland Australia under most projected climate change scenarios. This will undoubtedly have impacts on the biota of Australian dryland systems. However, accurate modelling of these impacts is presently impeded by a lack of empirical research on drought/heatwave effects on native arid flora and fauna. During the 2018–2021 Australian drought, many parts of the continent's inland experienced their hottest, driest period on record. Here, we present the results of a field survey in 2021 involving indigenous rangers, scientists and national parks staff who assessed plant dieback during this drought at Ulur u-Kata Tjut a National Park (UKTNP), central Australia. Spatially randomized quadrat sampling of eight common and culturally important plants indicated the following plant death rates across UKTNP (in order of drought susceptibility): desert myrtle (Aluta maisonneuvei subsp. maisonneuvei) (91%), yellow flame grevillea (Grevillea eriostachya) (79%), Maitland's wattle (Acacia maitlandii) (67%), waxy wattle (A. melleodora) (65%), soft spinifex grass (Triodia pungens) (53%), mulga (A. aneura) (42%), desert oak (Allocasuarina decaisneana) (22%) and quandong (Santalum acuminatum) (0%). The sampling also detected that seedling recruitment was absent or minimal for all plants except soft spinifex, while a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) indicated two-way interactions among species, plant size and stand density as important predictors of drought survival of adult plants. A substantial loss of biodiversity has occurred at UKTNP during the recent drought, with likely drivers of widespread plant mortality being extreme multi-year rainfall deficit (2019 recorded the lowest-ever annual rainfall at UKTNP 27 mm]) and record high summer temperatures (December 2019 recorded the highest-ever temperature 47.1°C]). Our findings indicate that widespread plant death and extensive vegetation restructuring will occur across arid Australia if the severity and frequency of droughts increase under climate change.