Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease,the Phytophthora alni‐induced alder decline

Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni‐induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.