基于GARP的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的分布区预测

加拿大一枝黄花（Solidago canadensis）原产北美，是在中国大陆危害最严重的入侵植物之一。本研究基于大量已有分布点数据，使用生态位模型（GARP）对其在中国的潜在扩散区域进行了预测，结果表明：极端低温、年均温对加拿大一枝黄花的分布限制较小，而坡度、坡向、年降雨量、雨日频率、汇流累积量、水流方向、极端高温和霜日频率对其分布影响显著。加拿大一枝黄花的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区，因此仍会继续在中国扩散；中国中南部和东北部是加拿大一枝黄花最易形成入侵的地区，应采取措施防止其入侵。

Potential Distributions of Solidago canadensis (Asteraceae)in China as Predicted by GARP

Solhtago canadensis L. is a perennial plant of the family Asteraceae, native to North American. It is one of the most harmful alien species in mainland China. This research applied Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production （GARP） ecological niche modeling to predict the species＇ potential range in China on the basis of occurrence points. The results indicated that： Environmental factors such as Slope, aspect, annual precipitation, wet days, flow accumulation, flow direction, maximum temperature and frost days greatly influenced the size of S. canadensis＇s potential range, while parameters such as minimum temperature and mean annual temperature had little impact. Areas that we predict to have potential for invasion were still larger than those areas that had been invaded. Therefore, S. canadensis is predicted to continue to expand in China. Northeast and south-central China was most liable to be invaded; hence urgent measures should be taken there to prevent this species from further spreading.