长白山林区核桃楸种群数量动态变化的研究

运用种群年龄结构、存活曲线统计和Leslie模型对长白山核桃楸种群在水胡林、针阔混交林、核桃楸占优杂木林和杂木林4种不同群落类型中种群数量动态变化进行了研究和预测。结果表明，核桃楸种群表现出衰退型的年龄结构特点，幼苗和幼树比例较小，种群在幼年期死亡率较高，反映出核桃楸种群15~20龄在个体经历了比较强烈的环境筛作用；Leslie模型预测显示，核桃楸幼苗数量和种群总数量在今后35年基本呈下降趋势，除在核桃楸占优的林分中种群维持增长外，在其它3中森林类型都表现出衰退趋势。因此，促进核桃楸的天然更新、加强幼苗幼树的抚育工作对长白山地区核桃楸种群的发展至关重要。

Study on Dynamics of Juglans mandshurica Population from Changbai Mountain

Based on demography of the age structure，survivorship curve and prediction from Leslie matrix model，the dynamic process of the Juglans mandshurica population at J. mandshurica and Fraxinus mandshurica forest, dominant J. mandshurica forest, mixed forest and mixed broadleaf-conifer forest, respectively, in Mt. Changbai of northeast China，was discussed and predicted. The results indicate that age structure of J. mandshurica population belongs to the type of decline, due to the characteristics of seedling and saplings with a small proportion of total population and high mortality rate at early stage, and that J. mandshurica population possibly underwent environmental screening at past 15-20 years. Leslie matrix model predicts basically that population of seedling and total numbers of J. mandshurica population, will have a decreasing trend in next 35 years. Although the population will be increased at dominant J. mandshurica forest, populations of J. mandshurica at the other three kinds of forests will be declined in the future. Therefore, it is essential to promote forest natural regeneration and to foster to seedlings and saplings as well as young J. mandshurica forest rationally.