Gene dispersal inference across forest patches in an endangered medicinal tree: comparison of model‐based approaches

Propagule dispersal in plants is a fundamental mechanism for colonizing new sites and adapting to changing climates, as well as for maintaining genetic diversity. Contrasting past and current gene dispersal can provide useful insights to gauge the extent of recent human disturbances and guide management strategies. However, research on gene dispersal of plants is not yet exhaustive because evolutionary or environmental impacts are often species‐specific and most existing studies have focused on analysis of dispersal at a single site, which may not be helpful for landscape‐level inferences and management interventions. In the present study, we assessed whether current gene or propagule dispersal would be more restricted than past gene dispersal at multiple patches of the endangered medicinal tree, Prunus africana. We employed eight highly polymorphic microsatellite markers in conjunction with isolation‐by‐distance, spatial genetic structure (SGS), and parentage assignment models to estimate gene dispersal distance in a spatial extent of approximately 400 km². There was no significant difference between gene dispersal distances across the different models (Friedman chi‐squared = 7.286, d.f. = 5, P = 0.2002). Estimates of current gene dispersal distance were comparable to dispersal in the last few generations. However, gene dispersal distance was much shorter in smaller than bigger forest patches. Further, significant (P < 0.05) SGS was detected in most forest patches, with the extent of SGS among adults being stronger in the smaller than bigger patches. These results suggest the need for practicing enrichment plantings in most forest patches, particularly in the smaller ones, to assist gene exchange among individuals and patches. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 887–904.