Seawater temperature, Gambierdiscus spp. variability and incidence of ciguatera poisoning in French Polynesia

In the context of global warming and climate change, ciguatera disease is put forward as an indicator of environmental disturbance. However, to validate this indicator, some unknown parameters such as the delay between environmental perturbation and outbreaks of ciguatera need to be investigated. The main goal of this study was to investigate the temporal link between the growth of Gambierdiscus spp., and one of its influencing factors and the declared cases of ciguatera disease in humans. Algal cell density and seawater temperature (SWT) were recorded monthly from February 1993 to December 2001 on the Atimaono barrier reef of Tahiti Island. Reports of ciguatera cases were obtained from three community health clinics near the study sites. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) shows: (1) SWT were positively associated with Gambierdiscus spp. growth at a lagtime of 13 and 17 months (p < 0.001); (2) Gambierdiscus spp. growth measured at a given time is related to a peak number of cases of ciguatera recorded 3 months after peak densities of this dinoflagellate (p < 0.001). These results allow the construction of a predictive model of the temporal link between ciguatera disease in humans and its etiologic agent: Gambierdiscus spp. This model constructed by using 1993–1999 data, then validated by 2000–2001 data, demonstrates an appreciable ability to predict changes in the incidence of ciguatera disease following algae blooms.