Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise |
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Authors: | Gabriela Mendoza‐González M Luisa Martínez Octavio R Rojas‐Soto Gabriela Vázquez Juan B Gallego‐Fernández |
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Institution: | 1. Red de Ecología Funcional, Instituto de Ecología A. C., , Xalapa, Veracruz, 91070 México;2. Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A. C., , Xalapa, Veracruz, 91070 México;3. Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Facultad de Biología, Universidad de Sevilla, , Sevilla, 41080 Espa?a |
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Abstract: | Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential ‘new shoreline’ will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a ‘coastal squeeze’ of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. |
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Keywords: | climate change coastal dune vegetation ecological niche modeling foredunes sea level rise species distribution |
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