大连金普新区碳固持生态服务供需格局时空差异

碳固持服务供需匹配状况对于优化区域生态系统管理、提升生态系统碳汇能力具有重要意义。以大连金普新区为研究区，利用InVEST模型、ArcGIS模型，研究固碳项生态系统服务供需匹配及其变化特征。结果表明：(1)研究期内，2010年至2018年，碳固持服务供给总量呈现出U字型变化趋势；需求总量呈现出持续增长的变化趋势，表现为低等级需求量地区向高等级需求量地区不断转化；碳固持服务供需求不匹配，供需错配现象突出，总体上呈现出供不应求。(2)碳固持服务供需赤字缺口正持续扩大。赤字类型总面积有持续增加的趋势；盈余类型总面积表现为先增后减；供需相对平衡类型总面积不断缩减，朝着低供给高需求方向转变。(3)金普新区碳汇地面积持续缩减，2018年仅为564km²;碳源地面积大量增加，2018年达到1340km²。(4)提出了控制城镇碳需求增长，增加绿地，提高碳供给能力，消减赤字，维持供需能力基本平衡的对策。

Spatio-temporal pattern of supply and demand of carbon sequestration services in Jinpu New Area, Dalian City

The matching of supply and demand of carbon sequestration services is of great significance for optimizing regional ecosystem management and improving ecosystem carbon sink capacity. Taking Jinpu New Area, Dalian City as the research area, the InVEST model and ArcGIS model were used to study the spatio-temporal pattern of supply and demand matching of carbon sequestration ecosystem services and its variation characteristics. The results show that:(1) during the study period, the total supply of carbon holding services showed a U-shaped change trend, while the total demand showed a continuous growth trend, which was manifested in the continuous transformation from low-grade demand areas to high-grade demand areas. The supply and demand of carbon solidified services did not match, and the mismatch between supply and demand was prominent, and the overall supply exceeded demand. (2) The gap between supply and demand of carbon sequestration services has been continuing to widen. The total area of the deficit type had a continuous increase trend; the total area of the surplus type was firstly increased and then decreased; the total area of the relative balance of supply and demand was constantly shrinking, changing in the direction of low supply and high demand. (3) As a state-level new area, Jinpu New Area has undergone a process of change before and after approval and development and construction. Carbon sink area continued to shrink, only 564 km² in 2018, and carbon source area increased significantly, reaching 1340 km² in 2018. Countermeasures were proposed. It is necessary to control the growth of urban carbon demand, increase green space, improve carbon supply capacity, reduce deficits, and maintain a basic balance between supply and demand capacity.