Evaluation of selection index: application to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index for soybean breeding

Summary Selection indices can be used to predict one trait from information available on several traits in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Plant or animal breeders are interested in selecting only the best individuals, and need to compare the efficiency of different trait combinations in order to choose the index ensuring the best prediction quality for individual values. As the usual tools for index evaluation do not remain unbiased in all cases, we propose a robust way of evaluation by means of an estimator of the mean-square error of prediction (EMSEP). This estimator remains valid even when parameters are not known, as usually assumed, but are estimated. EMSEP is applied to the choice of an indirect multitrait selection index at the F₅ generation of a classical breeding scheme for soybeans. Best predictions for precocity are obtained by means of indices using only part of the available information.