Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada |
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Authors: | Denys Yemshanov Frank H Koch Mark Ducey Klaus Koehler |
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Institution: | (1) Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada;(2) USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA;(3) Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 114 James Hall, Durham, NH 03824, USA;(4) Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 59 Camelot Drive, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Y9, USA |
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Abstract: | Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional
“biological” invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology
to characterize and predict pathways of human-assisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative
model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation
corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented
with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates
for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization
of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likely-to-be infested locations. We applied the pathway
model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport
to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new
forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have
the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at
mid-size US urban metropolises. |
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