气候变化背景下基于MaxEnt模型的刺梨潜在适生区分布预测

为阐明气候变化背景下刺梨(Rosa roxburghii)在中国的潜在适生区分布,该研究基于刺梨的自然分布数据及当代(1960~1990)、未来(21世纪50年代及70年代)气候因子数据,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了当前和未来气候情景下刺梨在中国的潜在适生区,并确定影响其地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:(1)温度因子是影响刺梨分布的关键气候因子,尤其是最冷月份最低温度(BIO06)对模型的百分比贡献率和排列重要性分别为66.7%和53.4%。(2)在当代气候条件下,刺梨的总适生区面积为3.50×10⁶km²,占中国陆地面积的36.44%。其中,高度适生区面积为2.05×10⁵km²,占总适生区面积的5.87%,主要分布在贵州西部、四川中部及川渝陕边境。(3)未来气候变化情景下,刺梨的总适生区和低度适生区面积将增加,而中、高度适生区面积将减小。在21世纪70年代RCP4.5气体条件下,中、高度适生区面积均出现最小值,分别为7.07×10⁵km²和2.80×10⁴km²,仅占当代中、高度适生区面积的53.30%和13.65%。研究发现,刺梨的适生区随着气候变化略增加并有向高纬度地区迁移的趋势,但在四川中部及川渝陕边境的高度适生区显著减少,将来主要分布于贵州省。

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Rosa roxburghii under the Background of Climate Change Based on MaxEnt Model

To evaluate the potential distribution of Rosa roxburghii in China under the background of climate change,we simulated the potential geographical distribution of R.roxburghii under current and future climate scenarios based on natural distribution data of R.roxburghii,and the current(1960-1990)and future(2050s and 2070s)climate factor data using MaxEnt software,and to identify the main climatic factors affecting its geographical distribution.The results showed that:(1)temperature factor is a key climate factor affecting R.roxburghii distribution,especially the percent contribution and permutation importance of the min temperature of coldest(BIO06)to the model were 66.7%and 53.4%,respectively.(2)Under the present climate conditions,the total suitable area of R.roxburghii is 3.50×10⁶km²,accounting for 36.44%of China's land area.Among them,the highly suitable area is 2.05×10⁵km²,accounting for 5.87%of the total suitable area,and it is mainly distributed in western Guizhou,central Sichuan,and Sichuan-Chongqing-Shaanxi border.(3)Under the future climate change scenario,the total and lowly suitable regions of R.roxburghii will increase,while the moderate and high suitable regions will decrease.Under the condition of RCP4.5 in 2070s,the moderately and highly suitable regions will be the minimum,which are 7.08×10⁵ km² and 2.80×10⁴ km²,respectively,accounting for only 53.30%and 13.65%of the moderately and highly suitable regions in current region.It indicated that the suitable region of R.roxburghii increased slightly with the climate change and tended to move to high latitude area.The highly suitable area of central Sichuan,and Sichuan-Chongqing-Shaanxi border are significantly reduced,and will be mainly distributed in Guizhou Province in the future.