未来气候变化情景下河南省粮食安全气候承载力评估

为探究未来气候变化对河南省粮食生产的影响,基于夏玉米和冬小麦两种主粮作物的生产潜力和气候资源承载力,结合1961—2017年河南省111个气象站的观测数据以及区域气候模式输出的2041—2080年RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下的气象资料,采用农业生态区域法(AEZ模型)计算了河南省气候生产潜力及其变化特征,并根据不同生活水平下的粮食需求指标,分析了河南省的气候承载力和剩余空间。结果表明: 1961—2017年,河南省夏玉米气候生产潜力平均为18408.87 kg·hm^-2,表现为中东部高、西部低;与基准时段(1981—2010年)相比,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别下降13.0%和8.0%,高值中心由豫东地区向豫西南地区转移。1961—2017年,冬小麦气候生产潜力平均值为10889.79 kg·hm^-2,呈中部高、北部低;与基准时段相比,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别减少18.6%、21.7%。当前,在温饱水平和小康水平粮食需求条件下,最大气候资源承载力分别平均养活人口2.52亿和1.83亿。2070s(2071—2080年)最大气候资源承载力平均养活人口有所减少,与基准时段相比,RCP4.5情景下小康水平和温饱水平分别下降9.7%和18.4%,RCP8.5情景下小康水平和温饱水平分别下降7.7%和16.6%。当前气候条件下,河南省气候资源相对剩余率在-93.0%～356.9%,与基准时段相比,未来气候资源相对剩余率减少近40%。

Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province,China under the future climate change scenarios

To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm^-2 from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm^-2, which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (C_max) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, C_max under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.