The anomalous effects of biased mutation

A model is presented in which alleles at a number of loci combine to influence the value of a quantitative trait that is subject to stabilizing selection. Mutations can occur to alleles at the loci under consideration. Some of these mutations will tend to increase the value of the trait, while others will tend to decrease it. In contrast to most previous models, we allow the mean effect of mutations to be nonzero. This means that, on average, mutations can have a bias, such that they tend to either increase or decrease the value of the trait. We find, unsurprisingly, that biased mutation moves the equilibrium mean value of the quantitative trait in the direction of the bias. What is more surprising is the behavior of the deviation of the equilibrium mean value of the trait from its optimal value. This has a nonmonotonic dependence on the degree of bias, so that increasing the degree of bias can actually bring the mean phenotype closer to the optimal phenotype. Furthermore, there is a definite maximum to the extent to which biased mutation can cause a difference between the mean phenotype and the optimum. For plausible parameter values, this maximum-possible difference is small. Typically, quantitative-genetics models assume an unconstrained model of mutation, where the expected difference in effect between a parental allele and a mutant allele is independent of the current state of the parental allele. Our results show that models of this sort can easily lead to biologically implausible consequences when mutations are biased. In particular, unconstrained mutation typically leads to a continual increase or decrease in the mean allelic effects at all trait-controlling loci. Thus at each of these loci, the mean allelic effect eventually becomes extreme. This suggests that some of the models of mutation most commonly used in quantitative genetics should be modified so as to introduce genetic constraints.