基于MaxEnt模型的人类干扰对滇金丝猴潜在分布的影响

滇金丝猴 (Rhinopithecus bieti) 是我国特有的濒危灵长类动物，预测其栖息地变化，评估人类活动影响，进而识别保护空缺，对该物种的保护具有重要意义。本文使用出行大数据估计人类出行密度，并将这一指标引入栖息地模型的构建；运用MaxEnt模型和空间分析技术分别构建自然环境和人类干扰两种情景下滇金丝猴的适宜栖息地模型，并分析自然环境与人类干扰两类共计11个变量对栖息地的影响。结果显示：(1) MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高，基于出行大数据的人类出行密度这一指标能很好表征人类干扰对栖息地的影响。(2) 模型预测得到滇金丝猴高适宜栖息地面积3 487.28 km²，认为影响滇金丝猴潜在分布的主要环境变量是海拔、年降水量、人类出行密度和距道路距离。(3) 人类干扰对滇金丝猴栖息地有明显的负影响 (使适宜栖息地面积相较于自然环境下减少9.32%)，其中人类出行活动对滇金丝猴的栖息地干扰最为明显；同时还发现研究区78.8%的区域均受到一个或多个人类变量的较强干扰。(4) 在现有15个滇金丝猴群的活动斑块中，3个同时具有较高栖息地适宜性和较多人类干扰的斑块，可作为重点保护区域；同时发现栖息地质量在距道路和居民点约2 500 m处均出现明显拐点，可作为开展保护工作的缓冲区参考距离。降低这些区域的人类干扰强度，对滇金丝猴的生存具有更重要的现实保护意义。

Impacts of human interference on the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys by MaxEnt model

Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) are rare and precious primates, endemic to China. Predicting the habitat range, evaluating the influence of human activities, and assessing conservation gaps are important for the conservation of this species. Based on 78 occurrence records of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey and 11 environmental variables (including 7 natural variables and 4 human variables), we use the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) and spatial analysis technology to construct potential suitable habitat models for Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys with and without human interference. Travel big data was used to estimate human travel density and included in the analyses as one of the human variables. The results showed that: (1) The model has achieved an accurate prediction. The human travel density properly reflects the human interferences on habitat. (2) The area of highly suitable habitat for Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys is 3 487.28 km². The four main factors that affect the potential distribution of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys are altitude, annual precipitation, human travel density, and distance to roads. (3) Human activities have a negative impact on habitat, among which human travel density has the strongest impact. Human interferences lead to a 9.32% decrease of suitable habitats compared to that with natural environment only. 78.8% of the study area is under the influence of human activities. (4) Three of 15 existing habitat patches of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey groups are facing serious human interference while having high suitability, which can be key conservation areas. The habitat suitability curves become stable when the distance to residents and roads is 2 500 m or further, indicating a potential buffer distance in species conservation. It is of practical significance for conservation to reduce the intensity of human disturbance in these areas.