Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia;2. College of Engineering and Science and Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, Victoria University, PO Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria 8001, Australia;1. Key Laboratory of Beijing for Water Quality Science and Water Environment Recovery Engineering, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China;2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Quality Control in Environmental Monitoring, China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China;3. State Grid Beijing Economic Research Institute, Beijing 100055, China;1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3. Water Administration Detachment of Changzhou, Changzhou 213001, China;4. Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China;5. Water Resources Department of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China;6. Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou 510611, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China;2. Construction and Administration Bureau of the Middle-Route of the South-to-North Water Division Project of China, Beijing, 100038, China;1. Designated Reference Institute for Chemical Measurements, Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh;2. Department of Geography and Environment, Jagannath University, Dhaka, Bangladesh |
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| Abstract: | Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices. |
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| Keywords: | Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI) Citarum catchment |
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