Potential Effects of Climate Warming on Fish Habitats in Temperate Zone Lakes with Special Reference to Lake 239 of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), North-Western Ontario

We used simple statistics (e.g. mean temperature, degree days, cumulative volume days) to describe present thermal habitats for cool water (yellow perch, Perca flavescens) and cold water (lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush) fish of a small boreal lake. We then modelled changes in the vertical and temporal extent of these habitats under various scenarios of climatic change that included increases in air temperature of 2°C, 4°C, and 9°C, and positive and negative deviations from present levels of 10% in solar radiation and relative humidity, and 20% in wind speed and the lake water extinction coefficient. Model simulations indicated pronounced changes in the temporal and vertical availability of fish thermal niche space. These changes were mainly driven by the large increases in mean mixed layer temperatures that corresponded to 85% of the increases in air temperature, but, in particular, changes in light attenuation also resulted in some non-linear, unexpected effects in the distribution and seasonal availability of thermal niche space. As expected, classical lake trout thermal habitat (5–15°C) was progressively reduced and almost disappeared in littoral areas in spring and early summer. Perch thermal niche space expanded for air temperature increases of up to 4°C, but largely disappeared for the 9°C increase. We discuss changes in thermal habitat with regard to the life history of lake trout and yellow perch, and include other determinants of fish habitat to evaluate the potential of these species for long-term ecological success under climatic warming.