生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标与方法

评估、模拟和预测全球生物多样性和生态系统服务的状态、趋势及其对人类福祉的影响,是当前生物多样性和生态系统服务研究领域的重要任务。指标和数据、模型和情景是推动生物多样性与生态系统服务评估研究理论建设和方法集成的重要工具。但是,目前对生物多样性和生态系统服务评估的指标体系和技术方法的综合对比研究相对缺乏。因而,系统评述了生物多样性和生态系统服务评估的概念框架、评估指标以及各类评估模型和方法的最新进展。生物多样性—生态系统功能—生态系统服务—人类福祉的级联框架是极具逻辑性的生物多样性和生态系统服务评估框架。现有的评估指标体系和模型方法还存在很多的问题和挑战,难以充分揭示生态系统服务的形成和影响机制、服务之间的联系和作用机理,有效地指导生态系统服务管理和决策制定。然而,这些评估指标和方法可为构建生物多样性与生态系统服务综合集成模型研究的框架提供重要的切入点。基于此,提出了生物多样性与生态系统服务综合集成模型研究的核心内容:i)目的:基于自然—社会综合特征的情景分析确定所解决的科学问题,输出生态系统服务管理和决策制定方案;ii)内容:尺度、生态系统服务类型、生物多样性的层次结构、组分间相互关系、驱动要素、多源数据的综合分析;iii)方法:对现有的各类模型和模型组合进行比较和不确定性分析,建立符合区域实际需求的生物多样性与生态系统服务综合制图模型库。在此基础上,建议我国应尽快发展适合中国区域特点的标准化指标体系和综合评估模型系统,定期对生物多样性和生态系统服务进行综合评估,掌握生物多样性和生态系统服务的变化趋势,提升我国在生物多样性和生态系统服务研究领域的国际地位和话语权。

Indicator systems and methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services

Evaluating, simulating, and predicting the status and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as their impacts on human well-being, are currently the primary goals for researchers in the field of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and indicators and data models and scenarios are major tools for the theoretical and methodological integration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, few detailed studies have conducted comprehensive analyses or comparisons of indicator systems or reported methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this paper, we review recent work regarding the conceptual framework, indicator systems, and various types of models and methods related to the assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The biodiversity-ecosystem function-services-human well-being cascade model is a more expressive logical framework, and owing to various problems and challenges, existing indicator systems and methods are ineffective for elucidating the mechanisms that determine the formation and impact of ecosystem services, for identifying internal connection and function mechanisms among services, or for offering guidance for ecosystem service management and policy making. However, existing indicator systems and methods provide an important entry point for constructing a synthetic evaluation model. Through a comprehensive analysis and comparison of current indicator systems and methods, we propose several core elements for studies of synthetic evaluation models, including i) Objectives, determining the scientific problems and developing schemes for ecosystem services management and decision making by scenario analysis based on the fundamental characters of interactions between nature and society; ii) Content, the comprehensive analysis of scales, service types, hierarchical nature of biodiversity, relationship among the components, drivers, and multi-source data; and iii) Methods, conducting comparison and uncertainty analyses of various types of models and model combinations, in order to establish a comprehensive map-making model base system that is suited for regional analyses. Accordingly, we propose that China should develop a standard indicator system and a synthetic evaluation model of biodiversity and ecosystem services that is suited to the nation''s regional characteristics as soon as possible, in order to periodically evaluate, simulate, and predict the status and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services and to enhance China''s position and power of discourse in the international arena of this field.