The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change |
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Authors: | François Guilhaumon Miguel B Araújo Luis Balaguer Marta Benito‐Garzón Will Cornwell Ernesto Gianoli Mark van Kleunen Daniel E Naya Adrienne B Nicotra Hendrik Poorter Miguel A Zavala |
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Institution: | 1. ‘Rui Nabeiro’ Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO, University of évora, , 7000 évora, Portugal;2. Laboratoire écologie des Systèmes Marins C?tiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, , 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France;3. LINCGlobal, Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural History, MNCN, CSIC, , 28006 Madrid, Spain;4. Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, , Ascot, SL5 7PY UK;5. Departamento de Biología Vegetal I, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, , 28040 Madrid, Spain;6. CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution (ESE), UMR 8079, Université Paris‐Sud, , F‐91405 Orsay Cedex, France;7. CNRS, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), , F‐94736 Nogent‐sur‐Marne Cedex, France;8. Université de Bordeaux, UMR 1202 BIOGECO, , F‐33400, Talence, France;9. INRA, UMR 1202 BIOGECO, , F‐33610 Cestas, France;10. Department of Ecological Sciences, Systems Ecology, Vrije Universiteit, , 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;11. Departamento de Biología, Universidad de La Serena, , La Serena, Chile;12. Departamento de Botánica, Universidad de Concepción, , Concepción, Chile;13. Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, , 78457 Konstanz, Germany;14. Departamento de Ecología y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, , Montevideo, 11400 Uruguay;15. Division of Evolution, Ecology and Genetics, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, , Canberra, Australia;16. Plant Sciences (IBG‐2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, , 52425 Jülich, Germany;17. Forest Ecology and Restoration Group, Department of Life Sciences, Science Building, of Alcalá, Campus Universitario, , 28871, Madrid, Spain |
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Abstract: | Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche‐modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population‐level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation. |
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Keywords: | Climate change climate variability hypothesis ecological niche models intraspecific variation local adaptation niche phenotypic plasticity population differentiation |
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