气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策

根据区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2气候情景（2011-2050年）以及基准气候时段（1961-1990年）的逐日资料，对2011-2050年我国农业热量资源的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明: 与1961-1990年相比，未来A2气候情景下，2011-2050年我国大部分地区的平均无霜期日数延长趋势明显，主要表现为终霜冻日的提前和初霜冻日的推迟；各地日均气温稳定通过0 ℃的持续日数也明显延长，大部分地区延长了1～14 d，其中2041-2050年，青藏地区大部、长江中下游地区大部、甘新地区西部和西南地区北部均可延长49 d；我国大部分地区≥0 ℃积温均呈增加趋势.为适应未来农业热量资源的变化，应进一步调整农业种植制度、优化农业生产布局和发展生物技术等，以实现我国农业的可持续发展.

Change trends of China agricultural thermal resources under climate change and related adaptation countermeasures

Based on the 2011-2050 A2 climate scenario derived from the regional climate model PRECIS and the daily data of 1961-1990 baseline climate condition, this paper analyzed the possible changes of the agricultural thermal resources in China from 2011 to 2050. Comparing with the baseline climate condition in 1961-1990, the average frost-free periods in most parts of China in 2011-2050 under A2 climate scenario would have an obvious extension, mainly manifested in the advance of last frost date and the postpone of first frost date. The days with the daily averagetemperature stably passing 0 ℃ would also prolong significantly, and extend from 1 day to 14 days in most parts of the country. Especially from 2041 to 2050, the days with the daily average temperature stably passing 0 ℃ in most regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and western and southwestern regions of Gansu and Xinjiang could be extended by 49 days. The ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperatures in most parts of the country would have increasing trends. In order to meet the future change trend of our agricultural thermal resources and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture in China, some countermeasures should be formulated, e.g, further adjusting agricultural cropping system, optimizing agricultural production distribution, developing biotechnology, and so on.