Cohort study of predictive value of urinary albumin excretion for atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with insulin dependent diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether slightly elevated urinary albumin excretion precedes development of atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with insulin dependent diabetes independently of conventional atherogenic risk factors and of diabetic nephropathy. DESIGN: Cohort study with 11 year follow up. SETTING: Diabetes centre in Denmark. SUBJECTS: 259 patients aged 19-51 with insulin dependent diabetes of 6-34 years'' duration and without atherosclerotic vascular disease or diabetic nephropathy at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline variables: urinary albumin excretion, blood pressure, smoking habits, and serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, sialic acid, and von Willebrand factor. End point: atherosclerotic vascular disease assessed by death certificates, mailed questionnaires, and hospital records. RESULTS: Thirty patients developed atherosclerotic vascular disease during follow up of 2457 person year. Elevated urinary albumin excretion was significantly predictive of atherosclerotic vascular disease (hazard ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.18) per 5 mg increase in 24 hour urinary albumin excretion, P = 0.002). Predictive effect was independent of age; sex; blood pressure; smoking; serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, sialic acid, and von Willebrand factor; level of haemoglobin A(lc); insulin dose, duration of diabetes, and diabetic nephropathy (hazard ratio 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08) per 5 mg increase