Temporal variation and landcover influence survival in adult female mottled ducks

Adult survival is a key driver of waterfowl population growth and is subject to temporal and spatial variation. Mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) are native to the Gulf Coast and peninsular Florida, USA, and have suffered population declines over the past decade, especially in Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although the cause of this decline is not well understood, previous research concluded variation in survival contributed to nearly a third of variation in the species' population growth rate. We used global positioning system-groupe spécial mobile (GPS-GSM) transmitters to study temporal and spatial variation in survival of adult female western Gulf Coast mottled ducks in southwestern Louisiana, 2017–2020. We evaluated weekly survival models parameterized with combinations of hunted and non-hunted periods, biological seasons, and landcover types that were used by mottled ducks. There were 3 competitive survival models, and all contained 4 parameters that parsed the annual cycle into the non-hunted period, first part of the general waterfowl season, and second part of the waterfowl season, and included the proportion of GPS locations in agricultural lands. Weekly survival was 0.979 during the first part of the general waterfowl hunting season, and 0.996 during the second part of the general waterfowl season. Daily survival rate increased with an increasing proportion of locations logged in agricultural lands. Annual survival rates were similar to other waterfowl that are not experiencing population declines, which suggests survival is not limiting population growth of mottled ducks along the western Gulf Coast. Managers should ensure the availability of refuge areas where hunting is prohibited during the first part of the general waterfowl season, when mottled ducks are at an increased risk of mortality, in addition to the targeted conservation of agricultural lands that provide cover and forage.