Structure and projected decline of a Karoo dwarf tortoise population

Inconspicuous, secretive, or sparsely distributed species receive relatively little research attention, potentially leading to uncertainty about their status and lack of efforts to conserve them. Karoo dwarf tortoises (Chersobius boulengeri) are endemic to South Africa, spend most of the time in retreats at remote arid locations, and are seldom seen. We conducted a 3-year (2018–2020) mark-recapture study to investigate the size and structure of the only Karoo dwarf tortoise population currently known to exist. The population in the 16-ha core of our study site consisted primarily of adult males and females, at a density of 3.3 individuals/ha. Many individuals had severely worn shells and appeared old. Small individuals (straight carapace length <65 mm) represented just 8% of the population and were mostly recent hatchlings. Overall, tortoises had high estimated survival rates (0.77–0.95; lower 95% confidence limit for the smallest tortoises was 0.16), despite a 15-month drought. The lack of small individuals may reflect low levels of recruitment and population decline. Predation by corvids was an obvious threat to all size classes. We estimated that the local population across the 250-ha study area was 800–900 males and females, and recommend precautionary conservation measures focused on reducing human-subsidized avian predation.