Missing piece of top predator-based conservation: Demographic analysis of an owl population on a remote subtropical island

Top predators are frequently the target of conservation programs. Owls are such predators. However, previous studies of owls are biased to species occurring in temperate regions, whereas most owl species occur in tropical or subtropical regions and are understudied. Furthermore, owls are often endemic to islands and of unknown conservation status. Demographic data for such species are especially scarce although they are essential for initiating and promoting their conservation. As a case study of demographic analysis of owls in a tropical or subtropical area and on islands, we applied an integrated population model to 7-year monitoring data (2012–2018) of the Ryukyu Scops Owl population on Minami-daito Island, Japan. We used survival history data from 903 individuals, reproduction and sex ratio data from 213 broods, and count data of 2,526 individuals in total. Long-term averages of annual survival rates were 0.73 for adult females and 0.74 for adult males, although the sexual difference was not significant. Sex ratio estimates fluctuated annually and long-term averages were slightly skewed to males: 0.51 among fledglings, 0.54 among yearlings, and 0.52 among adults. Long-term averages of population size were estimated to be 273.4 females and 296.8 males. The long-term average of population growth rate was 0.98, suggesting a slightly declining trend. It was fortunate to recognize the declining trend during the early phase. Considering the general lack of fundamental ecological data on owls of tropical or subtropical areas and on islands, it seems likely that many endangered owl populations await conservation efforts.